Get Posts Delivered To Your Inbox!

Enter your email address:
Delivered by FeedBurner

The Death of American Conservatism?

Mike Walsh on November 5th, 2008

There are a million different stories to tell about the events of yesterday, every one of them compelling in their own way. The election of our first African America President. The fundamental alteration off the electoral map. The Blowout of John McCain. The victories of Kay Hagan and Jeanne Shaheen. The tightest race of the day, between Norm Coleman and Al Franken. Sen. Ted Stevens resiliency in the face of being found guilty of seven felonies.

I’m going to look at one thing which bears some looking at. I’ve heard the words “Death of American Conservatism” when talking about this victory of President-Elect Obama. But I tell you that I do not for a minute believe it. We are not at our heart a liberal nation, politically, even if we have moved to the left somewhat. We still believe in smaller government, we all want to pay less taxes, we all want to make sure everyone gets the best of what this nation has to offer. This election showed more of our changed national mood than a change of our basic political philosophy. Both parties believe in the same things, freedom, liberty, justice.

The reason the Republicans were defeated so soundly yesterday is that George Bush ran the Republican brand into the ground for 8 years. That, more than anything else, made it easier for the Democrats to do to the Republicans exactly what they did. By following the extreme right wing policies and big government ideology that George Bush and the Republicans did, that made it much easier for the average person, who may have in past called himself Republican to drop that veneer and call him or herself independent instead. In the last few years the independents rosters swelled while the Republican ranks shrank. Coincidence? I don’t believe in coincidence, not here anyway.

The American people did not leave the Republican party, the Republican party left the American people. The beliefs those people hold has not changed tho. Barack Obama became something of a populist centrist, and in this way garnered more support from those jilted former Republicans. The word Obamacan does have meaning, it is more than just a cute neologism.

By supporting tax breaks for the middle class and promising to retool business to make them green and to keep jobs here, he seemed to be hearkening back to a day when Americans cared about the little guy, back before the days of Dubya, and Rove, and Rumsfeld.

Barack Obama even stole from the Republicans the “Strong national defense” argument that they have always made so well for the last quarter century with his talk of beefing up the fighting forces in Afghanistan and his aggressive stance towards elements of Al-Qaeda in Pakistan. He reclaimed that title that the Republicans themselves took from the Democrats a number of years earlier in the 1960’s, with LBJ and another unpopular war, that one in Vietnam.

The views that conservatives espouse are very much still there, they have simply moved out from under the umbrella of conservatism. It is the Ideological aspects of conservatism, which tend to skew towards semi-fascism, at least as they are espoused by right wing nutjobs like Karl Rove, that were skewered yesterday, the main concepts are still alive and well in the people and places that they have always existed in before.

Wow, I spoke about American Conservatism, and didn’t once mention the christian conservatives, who are the heart of the future of the Republican party, and were the one coalition that held tight for the republican party in the South and Mid-west.

What do you think made for the drastic turn that America took yesterday…or was it even a drastic turn at all? Talk to me about the good things that happened yesterday, and the bad things too, America! Drop me a Line!

Uncle Mikey

Subscribe to this blog's RSS feed

Related Posts
Dirty Pool - Selling Drama: Advertising and Negative Politics.A Few Words About N.Y.C.’s 13th District House seat6/14 The Saturday Internationale - Zimbabwe
. . . . . . . . . .

The Dawning of a New Age in American Politics

Mike Walsh on November 5th, 2008

Barack Obama has Just been elected President of the United States of America. At 11:00 P.M. Eastern time, California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii were all called for Sen. Obama, sending him over the 270 electoral college vote requirement for victory in the race for the presidency.

At this point Florida still looks like they will go to Sen. Obama padding his already impressive numbers. Virginia has gone to Sen. Obama, as has Colorado.

So Far, with only about 45% of the population’s vote actually counted, Barack Obama, excuse me, President Obama has 306 electoral votes and over 2 and a half million more votes than John McCain. And speaking of John McCain, It is official, he has called Barack Obama and conceded the race.

When the crowd in Chicago at Grant park heard the news, The crowd exploded. The crowd was more energetic and frenetic than one would normally expect to see in New York City on New Years eve.

This, ladies and gentlemen is perhaps one of the most important events you may ever see. There are a great number of people who never thought they would see something like this happen. An African American President.

A few words for the democrats of the nation. Today you are champions, but there is much work to be done. An economy in crisis. The biggest deficit in the history of this nation. A nation at war. Al-Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden are still at large. Many parts of the constitution have been attacked and weakened by Dubya. All these problems need to be resolved, and quickly.

You have a majority in the House. You have a Majority in the Senate. You run the White House. Now you need to take the reins and lead America in a new direction and lead us out of the deep morass we find ourselves in. It will be hard work.

Let’s get to work.

That’s it for Me. I’ll be back tomorrow afternoon with an overview of the days events.

Uncle Mikey

Related Posts
Midweek Polling News for the Third Week of JuneOh, The Sites You’ll SeeDemocratic National Convention: Day Four & More
. . . . . . . . . .

Get Out And Vote!

Mike Walsh on November 4th, 2008

Get Out And Vote!

As dawn creeps in on a normally chilled November New York morning, 41 degrees as of this writing, I am hoping that everyone will head out to vote, and if you live in the any of the early voting states and you have voted already, America thanks you. I’ll be heading out to do My civic duty around 10:00 AM or so, it should be slow then and the lines should be short. Regular off days in the middle of the week do, on occasion, have some advantages.

I am hoping everyone gets out and votes because this election has taken on a tenor I have not ever seen in my life. With The Nation struggling economically in a way it hasn’t in over 70 years, with a President who may be the most reviled man to hold the office in living memory, and with the world in chaos, we Americans have it within our grasp to change it all, with the push of a button, the pulling of a lever, the writing of a name. With the choosing of a new President, you will be helping to choose the path this nation takes for years to come, and will help to pull the nation out of it doldrums and help restore it’s tarnished greatness. The good you do now will echo deep into the future and help make or break a world in chaos. Everyone running for office has an idea of what they want to do for you, America, and they all think they are the best for the job. The plans and dreams of untold millions will be made or broken on the choice you Make today.

Choose Wisely.

America needs you. It doesn’t matter who you vote for. Vote because you love your country. Vote because you think the country is moving in the wrong direction and you want change. Vote because you think the country is moving in the right direction and you want things to remain the same. Vote to stop someone you dislike from getting to the white house. Vote to put someone you admire in a position to get into the white house. Vote because you think your voice is important. It does not matter the reason. America Needs you. Let America Know what you think.

Clean house in the House of Representatives. Create the Senate you want to see. Make the White House your house. Show’em who’s boss. Do Your Civic Duty. Vote.

I will probably drop a few blogs here today as things happen, from whatever stories of election fraud and irregularities that occur, to concession and victory speeches, and everything in between. I will, like I said yesterday, be on twitter for as much of the day as I possibly can. Look for miketherhino.

Uncle Mikey.

Related Posts
9:15 Update: Staying Tight Into the NightThings That Bother Me About This Election CycleNo Major Voting Problems So Far
. . . . . . . . . .

A Few Questions to Ask Yourself Before You Vote

Mike Walsh on November 3rd, 2008

Election day is just about 24 hours away. Have you made your choice for president yet? No? Well, Allow me to help. I won’t give you any information, what I’m gonna do is ask you to answer a few questions about what you think is important. I’ll keep the questions as broad as possible, and explain the reasoning behind asking them in a few spots.

If you’ve made your choice, just tag along and see what happens!

1 ) How do you feel about the candidates foreign policy stances? I ask this because John McCain will be more or less a mirror image of our current president in regard to national security, while Barack Obama seeks a more diplomatic tone in dealing with the world. If you think this is THE main issue of this election, and you feel a strong national security stance is more important than diplomacy, then John McCain is your man. If you think America has been doing it wrong of late and want a more civil tone to our world discussions, Then Barack Obama is your candidate on this Issue.

2 ) When should we leave Iraq? 16 Months? When were done? When the Iraqis tell us to?

3 ) How do you feel about both candidates reactions to the economic meltdown?

4 ) Is prior experience, or lack thereof, a reason to not vote for a candidate?

5 ) Is the Second Amendment Important to you? Do you think any candidate will try to take your guns away from you? Has any other President tried to? And if So, were they successful? Those last two questions here in part 4 were just something to chew on while you answer the second one.

6 ) How much Power should the President have? Could you picture any of these candidates lessening the power of the Presidency? And whom do you trust with the immense power over the people and the world at large? Anyone? If so why, and if not why not?

7 ) Should Social Security be Privatized? Kept as it is? What about other entitlement programs? Are entitlement programs a solution to problems or a cause? Why?

8 ) How much have you thought about the House races in your state? How about Senate races, if you have any? Your vote there will swing the election and all the legislation that will pass through both houses of congress for at least the next two years! Do you know your candidates? If Not, Brush Up!

9 ) How important are the Vice Presidential candidates here anyway? In all likelihood the next President will live out his term, barring a calamity, so knowing that, how important are the #2’s here, really?

10 ) Has either sides campaigning left you wondering why they did what they did? Did the rhetoric of the campaign make more of an impression on you than the issues? Did you let that have an impact on you? If not why not, and if so why?

I personally think it is more important to get a grasp on policy issues and stances than rhetoric and campaign posturing, but that’s just me….Which means i let about 90% of it, from all sides, go in one ear and out the other. I had my bullshit detector turned up to maximum sensitivity all election cycle, and I am hoping that you did as well. :-)

I could ask 100 other question, or have asked these questions in 100 other ways. I wanted to, with these questions, get away from the campaign rhetoric and get back to the meat of the issues, so that when you walk into that voting booth on election day, you are doing so not with thoughts of how much money was spent on clothes or who called who a socialist or any other nonsense like that.

A few more quick things. Get plenty of rest today. The lines tomorrow may be long at your polling place, and you’ll want to be well rested for what may be an hours long wait on line. For those who are interested, I will be on twitter for most of the day tomorrow, I am guessing from about noon, after I vote. Click the top of the page on twitter where it says “Hot Political Topics” and Look for MikeTheRhino. And click here to take a political quiz.

I’ll Talk to you Tomorrow.

Uncle Mkey

Related Posts
Bob Barr/Midweek Polling News for the First Week in JulyThe Saddleback Forum, Part II: Barack ObamaWhat’s the Talking Point?
. . . . . . . . . .

Final Poll Check

Mike Walsh on October 31st, 2008

One Final look at the Polls before Tuesday’s Election.

And I have to tell you, the Polling is tightening up nationwide. In the Real Clear Politics polling average, where every major national poll is added together and given equal weight, gives Barack Obama a 6% lead overall. That is down frm 5 days ago when he had a 7.9% lead. John McCain has added 1.4%, while Barack Obama has lost .5% in the average over that timespan. This can be largely attributed to the three point surge in Polls By McClatchy/Ipsos and GWU/Battleground and a 2% uptick from Rasmussens latest polling data. The Obama loss where it exists is 1%, and it exists in polls by GWU and Reuters/C-Span/Zogby to name two of them.

There is less historical data when it comes to the battleground states, less of a chance to see how the candidates numbers have turned around over time, at least with single individual polls, but overall, give an indication that things are turning for The Illinois Senator.

In Indiana, Polling up until last Tuesday gave John McCain a somewhat comfortable 4% lead, that lead has now disappeared, and Barack Obama holds a slim 1.7% lead in the state, which has not gone Democrat in my lifetime. It is still within the margin of error, so at this point Indiana is a statistical dead heat.

North Carolina has been tight for a while, unlike Indiana. There has not been a lead larger than the MOE(margin of error) since September 27th. In Fact Barack Obama has held a razor thin lead in the North Carolina since the Sept. 28th.

Missouri has been within the standard 3% MOE for the entire month. Heartening for the McCain camp would be the numbers that suggest that he is making up ground here. While the race has been tight, and there have been three lead changes in the last month, most of the last 12 days or so have been on the upper end of that 3% margin, around 2.7%. But in the last four days it has gone from a 2.7% poll average lead for Obama, to a .2% lead, largely on the strength of the SurveyUSA folks, who went from Having Obama with an 8% lead 51%-43%, to a dead heat at 48% apiece.

Florida has also, like North Carolina and Missouri, been tight for a while. Barack Obama has held a lead in this state since October first, but that lead has been, for the most part within the MOE. That has only really disappeared over the last two days, but just barely. The Obama lead in Florida is now at 3.5%, nothing earth shattering at all.

I was going to speak extensively on Pennsylvania, but the Numbers there haven’t been close for a month. Obama has been up by as much as 14% and is now up by 11%.

Now, what can you learn from this? A few things. One, John McCain, despite being part of the Party in power in the White House, with the most unpopular President in living memory, is still holding on to a fairly large segment of the population. Two, Barack Obama has a large base of support in these normally republican strongholds.

Three, Things are gonna be Reeeeeeeeeeeeeal Interesting next Tuesday.

What do You Think America? Do the Poll Numbers reflect accurately the way America feels? Is it really that close? How does it look in your home state? Who do you think will win your states electoral votes when this is finally done? Drop me a Line and Let me Know!

Uncle Mikey

Related Posts
Oh, The Sites You’ll SeeThe Joy of Polls!Midweek Polling News for the Final Week of June
. . . . . . . . . .

How McCain Can Win

Mike Walsh on October 27th, 2008

Future President?

     Despite everthing you’ve heard, and just about everything I’ve said, this man can win.  Why are you laughing?  Do you think I haven’t watched all the news about there being fractures within the Republican Candidates team, with Sarah Palin going “Rogue”?  Do you think I haven’t seen the polls?  I have.  And I tell you this man can win.

     Let me paint the Picture for you.  Brush stroke One. Polling is not always accurate.  New Hampshire in the democratic primary was supposed to go to Barack Obama, but in the End, Hillary Clinton won.  At this time 8 years ago, Al Gore was leading in the polls.  So do not tell me that the current poll numbers mean all that much. 

    Brush stroke two.  For all that there has been a decline in people who call themselves Republican and people who are registered as Republican, that doesn’t mean there aren’t just as many people out there who feel and think and share the ideas and ideologies that exist within the Republican party.  There might well have been a disconnect between the party and the people, but when push comes to shove the people generally fall into line with their Idea of moral and ethical leadership.

   Only two brush strokes? Easy painting, this one was!

    Now to the brass tacks.  There is a list of states out there that no matter what, will vote republican.  You could stick Pinky and the Brain out there as the Republican ticket and they would win.  Those states in the midwest and the south almost always vote republican.  From Idaho and Utah in the East, to South Carolina in the west, there are about 20 states that the Republicans can generally count on. 

    Now it’s true that a few Red States have turned Blue, but there are also toss up states that I think John McCain will do quite well in.  If you are a Democrat and you have counted States such as North Carolina, Indiana or Florida in the Blue Column, states currently listed as tossups, I would think again.  Indiana hasn’t voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate in my life time, North Carolina has only Gone Blue once in that 40+ year span, in 1976, and Florida has gone blue only twice, in ‘76 and ‘96.

    Now we need to press and think about a few states which are leaning democratic right now, but are within striking distance for the Republicans.  Those states are Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado.  All three states are in the lean category, and have in past gone a majority of the time to the Republicans.  They are within grasp, and with the right strategy they could well fall into the Republican column by day’s end November 4th.

    Here is the list of states John McCain wins in the scenario I just painted, and don’t think this is whimsy.  This CAN happen.

  Alaska, Nevada, Idaho, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia.

    That would make it a 279-259 Electoral College Win for the McCain-Palin ticket.

    What do you think America?  Think it can play out like this? Think Florida and North Carolina and Nevada will go Dem or GOP? What does your scenario for the election look like?  Drop me a Line and Let Me Know!

     Uncle Mikey

Related Posts
John McCain: Myth and Reality.Where does John McCain really Stand Anyway?9:15 Update: Staying Tight Into the Night
. . . . . . . . . .

A Curious look at a Curious Race

Mike Walsh on October 24th, 2008

jfsoftbrainswiki.jpg it should read…”And buy the candidate”

A Curious Look back at the Campaign. The Campaign as Entertainment.

The script reads like a Reality show. Get a bunch of people who all want the same job, make them fight like wolves for that job, and at several points kick some of them out, with the crowd watching making the choice. Think about it. The election process may well be the ultimate reality show. The prize? America’s future.

Many Contestants at the outset, some a bit quirky, some not. A few strong candidates from the beginning, a few outsiders who we all knew from the beginning had no chance. We rooted for them anyway. There were some surprises along the way and some nastiness as well.

We started out with some strong contenders who washed out early. Joe Biden. Chris Dodd. Rudy Giuliani. There was the early surprise victory of Barack Obama in Iowa and the surprise 2nd place finish of John Edwards, that shocked a lot of people. There was the weak start by Hillary Clinton in that same state. It made her Cry. Which in turn made people realize she wasn’t a robot. She won her next primary on those tears.

There were the outsiders, popular and strong, who got love from some segments of the population but no love from the networks. Think Ron Paul, Sam Brownback, Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich. There were outsiders who got no love at all, but were deserving of our respect. Think Duncan Hunter and Mike Gravel. Where is mike BTW? I know Rep. Duncan went back to the hill, But I think we need to put Mike on a milk carton. He seems to have disappeared.

There were the EXTREME outsiders. So outside that they decided to have their Own party! And they might not get much love from the voters, but they have a lot to say to America. What America has to say to them in return is something I cannot guess at. All you can say to them is good luck. If Mr. Barr, Mr. Nader, Mrs. McKinney and Mr. Baldwin want any real love for themselves and their parties in the future, they need to find a way to legislate themselves onto the main stage.

There were strong candidates who did well but in the end faltered and ended up far short of their goals. It Turned Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson into cheerleaders. Shake Yer Pom Pom’s Fellas!!!

There is the man who wishes he could be a cheerleader, but can’t do it. Controversy made that impossible. John Edwards should have known better than to do what he did, but some people just don’t know any better. Or think they are smarter than the rest and it makes them headstrong and stupid. Well, one is as good as the other come to think of it.

The final four had two people who no one thought could do it, and two people who were well liked from the beginning. OK there were five, but Ron Paul got no love and a lot of people really wrote the man off. This was supposed to be Hillary’s race but she was challenged by the unlikely candidate from Illinois. Senator Obama fought her hard and in the end won perhaps the hardest fought race in the history of the Democratic Party.

There’s 18,000,000 cracks in the ceiling, but the ceiling is still there. Another day. It will happen. The ceiling will fall away someday.

John McCain Maneuvered Mitt Romney out of the race after Super Tuesday, and that essentially gave him the race for his party’s nomination. It was him and Elmer Fudd err… Mike Huckabee. Huckabee ended up surprisingly strong and fought for far longer than anyone thought possible. It got him a TV Gig. I think he’s happy with that, as well he should be, even though he lost.

But the Maverick found a way, and he’s not backing down to anyone.

It’s been entertaining if nothing else. The ratings have been off the charts, and that’s the way they wanted it. If it was only about the needs of the people, there would not be the glitz, the drama, the plot twists that we’ve seen the last 20+ months. Tell me that when this all started you knew we would be here with the players who are here, and the circumstances we have. Tell me you knew John McCain would pick a bumpkin for his #2 spot. That Barack Obama would even be here. That Joe Biden would be invited back to play second fiddle. Tell me that so I can laugh in your face.

Do I wish this campaign were a bit less entertaining? Yes and no. Think about this. If you are watching you are learning. Learning about the candidates, about the process, and in the end about the way the people in this country think. It may not be what you wanted to learn but learn it you will. Think about this as well. You and I both are enamored with it all, if you weren’t you wouldn’t be reading this, now would you? And it’s not just the process but juicy stuff that goes on. You would have to be inhuman to not be somewhat interested in the personality battles and the tit for tat and the chaos. Drama sells, and there’s drama every day on the campaign trail.

I would like it to be more about issues and less about personalities. I would like it to be more about the ability to govern and less about the ability to play to the camera. I would like more viable political parties involved. America needs to make the two party system a multi-party system. The Green Party might have a great deal to say, The Natural Law Party might have a message America needs to hear, The Independents might be the best thing for America, but the way things are set up now, you’d never know it.

But in the end, we pick people who are most like us, and the system we have suits who we are. Whether that is in our best interests is another matter entirely. If you don’t like the way our electoral process looks, your problem isn’t with the system, it’s with the people who accept the system, and only change from within the system can change this from a reality show into a real race to show who the best person to lead is. If you want to change the system, change the people.

There have been quite a bit of twists along the road to today. The only question now is do we get a “Twist” ending? What do You think, America? Where do you think the script goes from here? And is it a script, or is it just who we are that drives things the way they’ve gone? Drop me a Line and let me Know!

Uncle Mikey

Related Posts
Hurricane Gustav: Candidates ReactionDNC Convention Reflections: Day OneWhaddayamean It’s Not Over?
. . . . . . . . . .

Terrorists and the Presidential Campaign

Mike Walsh on October 23rd, 2008

abdulaziz_al-omari.jpg

I’ve been hearing a number of things said over the last two days over comments made by Joe Biden about the possibility of a created crisis to test a future President Obama. The McCain Campaign jumped all over this statement, saying the following:

Joe Biden guaranteed a generated international crisis if Barack Obama is elected, and a smile-for-the-cameras press conference isn’t going to mitigate the risk of an Obama presidency.

All presidencies have risks. I think the economy is a bigger concern than terrorism, but terrorism is a major issue, not to be sneezed at. So let’s have a look at what Al-Qaeda has done over the last several years to affect the outcome of elections in two instances.

On October 29th of 2004, a scant 3 days prior to the U.S. Presidential election, Osama Bin-Laden put out a Videotape, warning of plans of future attacks on American targets. There are those who think that this helped tip the scales in that election away from John Kerry and towards George Bush, a man who very much defined himself as THE anti-terror candidate.

The train Bombings in Spain, that killed 191 people and wounded 1,755 people in 2004, happened a scant 3 days prior to their election. Jose Maria Aznar had sent troops to Iraq, several thousand in fact. He lost his election bid.

Al-Qaeda has already said that they like John McCain, and are willing to attack America to influence the election.

Now, do I think they will? Of course not. I’m not sure they’re strong enough, and anything that Al-Qaeda says here has to be looked at as a subterfuge, meant to confuse and harass their enemies, us. For us to believe anything they say, would take extreme paranoia on our part and is simply ludicrous. We really do need to be a bit more stout of heart than that. I think the statements they are putting out now are the extent of what they do. And I don’t know about you, but I for one will not change how I’ll vote based on what a terrorist does or says. I’m not a coward like that, and I’m fairly sure that most Americans would join me there.

Mind you, they like the Republicans it seems, and it’s not surprising. The Republican president has been an excellent recruiting tool for the terrorist network, and they are, I think, loath to lose that tool, and will do what they can to keep that tool, a pro-war Republican President, at their disposal. Killing is their business, and business is good as far as they see it. Just for a counterpoint to this, Hezbollah at one point actually endorsed Barack Obama, but backed out of that endorsement after he made several pro-Israeli statements. Guess that whole “Hussein” middle name thing the Republicans keep harping on doesn’t get that much play in the lands where that name is more common than the name smith.

Al-Qaeda is simply playing the propaganda game at this point, and I think they will keep doing just that. They know how jumpy Americans are. They don’t have to bomb us to affect us. They used words in the 2004 Presidential election to good effect. I think Joe Biden learned a lesson, but is simply applying it improperly. It isn’t about testing the President, Joe, It’s about getting the guy they want in office so they get what they want. And what is it that they want?

WAR WITHOUT END.

That’s my two cents. Disagree? Want to talk about terrorism and politics and how one affects the other? Drop me a line!

Uncle Mikey

Related Posts
YOU ARE BEING WATCHEDMcCain, Obama and Public FundingTalk about Talk
. . . . . . . . . .

The Joy of Polls!

Mike Walsh on October 20th, 2008

Obama-McCain

Happy Monday to you! Hope you had a good weekend and everything went well. This week we start with Polls.

There are a number of national polls out there that are showing a slight contraction of the lead that Senator Obama has had for the last few weeks. This is according to Real clear Politics which adds together and averages a group of the largest and most respected polls into a poll average. The Contraction is due in fact to two polls, One By Gallup, and the Other By Reuters/Zogby/C-Span. The Gallup (traditional) numbers have the Obama lead at 3%, 49% to 46%. Here is a quote from the Gallup webpage this poll is on:

Gallup’s “traditional” likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections.

I am sure it is an accurate poll, but one wonders about methodology when looking at that statement and juxtaposing it with the vast amount of newly minted Democrats that have come into the fold over the past year and a half. In the Gallup (expanded) poll, Barack Obama lead by 7% and in their daily tracking poll, Obama lead by 10%. Go Fig. If you like either major party candidate, Gallup has a poll for you!

John Zogby, along with Reuters and C-Span, have slightly more troubling news for Barack Obama. The race according to this poll, is a dead heat. I would dismiss this poll, but I have dismissed John Zogby’s polling before, only to have it bite me in the butt. If John Zogby says this is a dead heat, I believe him. He has Obama leading by 3%, 48% to 45%, in a poll that has a MOE(margin of error) of 2.9%. Zogby thinks this is due to positive spin and news after the final debate.

There is one statement in this poll which catches my eye, that being that the significant Independent vote lead which Barack Obama had has dwindled. He has lost 8% of the independent vote in one day. I cannot say whether this is because of John McCain’s Debate appearance or random poll skewing or what, but no matter what it is, Mister Obama needs to see what he can do to shore up that independent vote, or it’ll cost him.

But there is good news for Senator Obama, In the form of the endorsement of Former Secretary of State, Ret. General Colin Powell, and the news that Barack Obama made an amazing $150,000,000 via contributions last month. This will make the campaigning much easier, knowing his bankroll is as large as it is.

It really looks like Sen. Obama made a smart move, turning down public financing, doesn’t it? It does look to me though, like this race is going to be a lot closer than most people think it is going to be. The combination of the Bradley effect, and what I see as a solid South and Midwest going for John McCain, is going to make this race significantly closer. I see Florida and Ohio and North Carolina going to the Republicans, and I really see this race coming down to a few states. RealClearPolitics has this race looking like a runaway. If you click on the No toss up states They have Obama winning the electoral college overwhelmingly 364-174.

I don’t see it that way. I don’t see Obama winning North Carolina AND Virginia AND Florida AND Ohio. One, maybe two of those, but not all four. The way I have it drawn up has Obama winning a tight race 278-260. I have no faith in the thought that this race is over in any way shape and form, or that the Republicans are simply going to roll over and give up. They aren’t like that, never have been, and never will be. And one final thought.

If Barack Obama slackens his pace in any way, he will lose this election.

A video before I finish up here, Gen. Colin Powell on Meet The Press:

How are you feeling about the polling? How are you feeling about the direction the election in general is going? How are you feeling about John McCain’s chances in this election? How do you see the electoral college vote shaping up? Drop me a line and let me know, America!

A story with Norma Leah McCorvey tomorrow.

Uncle Mikey

Related Posts
Polls, News Of The Week, And Other StuffFinal Poll CheckNews of the Week
. . . . . . . . . .

sopwith-camel-scout-model-plane_m.jpg

oh wait it is a plane, and a cheap model plane at that!!! Sorry, my bad…

This Friday we have a new Podcast!!! In It you will Find…..

A man with a crappy voice speaking about politics and sounding kind of tired!!!

A description of Fred Thompson as “Limper than a wet dish rag” for no readily apparent reason!!!

Giggling at John McCain!!!

A whole lot of pauses while talking, and none for dramatic effect!!!

A Democrat wishing John McCain luck!!!

Not One Mention of Joe The Plumber!!!

And a man with three buttocks!!!

Well OK, that last one isn’t there, but I thought what the hell, I like Monty Python, and the Joke worked for them, Why can’t it work for me?

I thought that rather than focus on the polls or on the Economy, something there will be plenty of time for in the next three weeks, I thought I would just drop a few thoughts, via this podcast, about Wednesday’s debate.

But Wait! There’s More!

Two Videos, first one: Joe The Plumber, most used words and best lines, as seen By Congressional Quarterly:

Second Video: Joe the Plumber, The Interview that made him famous! :

Tell me what you think of this weeks Podcast, the Debate, and this weeks Video selections!!! Drop a comment My way!!!!

Uncle Mikey!!! Now with extra exclamation Points!!!!

Related Posts
No related posts
. . . . . . . . . .